WTPS31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 174.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 174.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.9S 176.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.1S 177.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 22.7S 178.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.5S 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 20.2S 178.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.7S 175.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.8S 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 175.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 11P IS MAINTAINING TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 132151Z METOPB MICROWAVE PARTIAL EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE NOTED DEGRADATION OF CONVECTION CAUSING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO DROP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS DEGRADATION IS DUE IN PART TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. TC 11P IS TURNING TOWARD A MORE EASTERWARD TRACK AS THE SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) IS NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO RECEED EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT THE TRACK BACK TO AN EASTWARD MOTION. VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT 36- 48 HOURS, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. AFTER THIS TIME, IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RE- INTENSIFICATION TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE EQUATORWARD TRACK MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //