WTPS31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 172.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 172.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 25.2S 174.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 25.1S 176.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.0S 177.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 22.7S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.9S 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.9S 177.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.0S 175.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 173.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD-TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS OCCURRING. A 130735Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 11P TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING GRADUALLY THOUGH TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS WITHIN THE TROUGH AND COLDER SSTS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL AND TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO REGAIN SOME STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS OVER MORE FAVORABLE SSTS AND LOWER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE EQUATORWARD TRACK MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW 130900)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//