WTPS31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 171.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 171.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.0S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.1S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.9S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.7S 177.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 21.5S 179.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.3S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.5S 172.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 171.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN EXTREMELY WELL DEFINED AND CLOUD-FREE EYE FEATURE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC WINSTON HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF 40 KNOTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 36 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND REPOSITIONS TO THE NORTH OF TC WINSTON, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN AND MAINTAINS A GENERAL EAST- NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THE NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TC WINSTON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER AREAS OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SSTS, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY EXPERIENCING INCREASING VWS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK TO AN EASTWARD TRACK ALONG 20 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE, OHC AND SSTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE, THEREBY ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//