WTXS31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 26.5S 54.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S 54.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 28.8S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 31.8S 58.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 36.2S 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 28 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 40.6S 65.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 55.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH MODERATE CONVECTION BEING MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. AN 111102Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CONFIRMS THE WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION ABOUT THE CENTER, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC DAYA IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND BEGUN THE WEAKENING PHASE. TC DAYA IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC DAYA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RETREATS NORTHWARD AND IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TC DAYA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12, AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//