WTXS51 PGTW 230300 WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 160123015059 2016012300 08S CORENTIN 004 01 180 08 SATL 030 T000 215S 0716E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD T012 234S 0721E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD T024 251S 0733E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD T036 265S 0749E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD T048 269S 0761E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD T072 272S 0771E 055 R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 289S 0766E 045 T120 319S 0770E 040 AMP 120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 71.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 71.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.4S 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 25.1S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 26.5S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.9S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.2S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 28.9S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 31.9S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 71.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 222310Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE CENTER. PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES YIELDED T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 AND SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. TC CORENTIN REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND HIGH (28 DEG C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC CORENTIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN MOVING ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY RIDGE RAPIDLY REPOSITIONING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 12 THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN TAUS 72-120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 48 AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.// 0816011918 138S 782E 20 0816012000 139S 776E 15 0816012006 140S 769E 25 0816012012 142S 762E 30 0816012018 145S 757E 30 0816012100 149S 752E 30 0816012106 154S 745E 30 0816012112 159S 736E 45 0816012118 169S 734E 45 0816012200 178S 732E 55 0816012200 178S 732E 55 0816012206 185S 724E 65 0816012206 185S 724E 65 0816012212 199S 719E 65 0816012212 199S 719E 65 0816012218 207S 716E 70 0816012218 207S 716E 70 0816012300 215S 716E 75 0816012300 215S 716E 75 0816012300 215S 716E 75