WTXS31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 27.0S 76.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 76.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.6S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 27.6S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 77.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1153 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED AND HELD RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A 240922Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC CORENTIN HAS ALSO MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A FIX CONSENSUS FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND A PREVIOUS PARTIAL 240426Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TRAVELING IN PHASE WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF 26 C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC CORENTIN WILL ENTER AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN; BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. VWS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY AT NEARLY 20 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT AS THE CYCLONE LOSES SPEED. THIS COUPLED WITH COOLER SST WILL DISSIPATE TC CORENTIN BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z. //