WTXS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 71.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 71.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.4S 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 25.1S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 26.5S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.9S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.2S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 28.9S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 31.9S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 71.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 222310Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE CENTER. PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES YIELDED T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 AND SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. TC CORENTIN REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND HIGH (28 DEG C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC CORENTIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN MOVING ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY RIDGE RAPIDLY REPOSITIONING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 12 THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN TAUS 72-120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 48 AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//