WTXS31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 71.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 71.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.8S 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.8S 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 25.5S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 26.6S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 27.6S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 28.4S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 30.5S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 71.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 221156Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEPEST CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC CORENTIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST, WHERE WARM (28C) SSTS SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING ON A SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 96, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY AROUND TAU 36 TO 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO A REGION WITH HIGHER VWS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.//