WTXS31 PGTW 220200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 73.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 73.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.8S 72.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.7S 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.7S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 25.6S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 28.1S 75.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 29.0S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 30.0S 75.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 73.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 911 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND IS PERSISTING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 08S HAS SHIFTED TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE SUPPORTING THE RECENT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 24 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD CHANNELS HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. IN ADDITION, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AS THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW AND CREATING A VERTICALLY STACKED ENVIRONMENT. AS TC 08S TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS, THE STR TO THE EAST WILL WEAKEN WITH A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 120. EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN STR WILL BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 08S, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, BUT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WILL DEVELOP AS SSTS DECREASE POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. IN ADDITION, VWS WILL INCREASE AS MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES, IN THE UPPER LEVELS, BEGINS TO IMPINGE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//