WTIO30 FMEE 250014



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/3/20152016

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)



2.A POSITION 2016/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.0 S / 77.8 E

(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN

DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 540 SE: 590 SW: 590 NW: 440

34 KT NE: 440 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 330







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 2300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/01/25 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2016/01/26 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2016/01/26 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2016/01/27 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2016/01/27 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2016/01/28 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/01/29 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW

120H: 2016/01/30 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT

LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=2.5+;CI=3.0-



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE ANIMATED IR PICTURES HAVE DISPLAYED SOME

SIGNS OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR WITH CIRRUS DRIFTED EASTWARD.



UNDER THE ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONSTRAINT, THE LLCC IS NO

LONGER IN PHASE WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION (CF MW IMAGERY AMSUB-N19 AT

2041Z).

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER LOW HEAT POTENTIAL SEAS.

FOR THE NEXT HOURS, IN THIS UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, CORENTIN IS

EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND TO ADOPT A

POST-CYCLONIC STRUCTURE.



MONDAY, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING IN ITS SOUTHEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD

TURN ANTI-CLOCKWISE.

TUESDAY, THE WEAKENED LOW SHOULD BE UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE

SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND MOVE GLOBALLY WESTWARD.



FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FROM WEDNESDAY, THERE IS STRONG

SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC NWP GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO

SLOW WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM A COL, AND THEN, REMAIN ON THE

NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE (WESTWARD MOVEMENT), OR

DIP DOWN SOUTH TOWARDS A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH.=