WTIO30 FMEE 240650



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/3/20152016

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)



2.A POSITION 2016/01/24 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 74.6 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR

DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 430 SE: 430 SW: 440 NW: 300

34 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 220







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/01/24 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2016/01/25 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2016/01/25 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2016/01/26 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2016/01/26 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2016/01/27 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/01/28 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

120H: 2016/01/29 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=2.5+;CI=3.0-



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND HAS GLOBALLY WRAPPED

AROUND THE CENTER; BUT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGIN

TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWERTERN PART OF DEEP CONVECTIONS OF THE STORM, AS

SHOWN BY THE FORMATION OF THE START OF A CIRRUS BOW.



SUNDAY, VWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY, AND SOUTH OF

27S, THE OHC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD

CONTINUE TO BENEFITR OF THE STRONG OUTFLOW IN THE NEXT HOURS TO

MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY A LITTLE, BUT  THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE

LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PROGRESSIVELY BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION FROM MONDAY.



MONDAY, UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE RIGDE ON THE NORTHEASTERN,

AND THE RIDGE REBUILDING WEST OF THE SYSTEM, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO

BECOME MORE EASTWARD.

TUESDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD OVER

THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS

SOUTH.



FOR THE LAST DAYS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK. CEP

AND UKMO FORECAST THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH, WHICH

COULD STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. BUT GFS SUGGEST THE CONTINUATION

OF THE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION WITH THE TROUGH. PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TO

THE FIRST SCENARIO, AS THE WEAKENING SUGGESTED BY CEP, IS CHOSEN, AND

SO THE TROUGH MISSED.=