WTIO30 FMEE 240026



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20152016

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)



2.A POSITION 2016/01/24 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 73.9 E

(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE

DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 13 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 560 SE: 480 SW: 440 NW: 370

34 KT NE: 390 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 240







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/01/24 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/01/25 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2016/01/25 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2016/01/26 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2016/01/26 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2016/01/27 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/01/28 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2016/01/29 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.0-;CI=3.5-



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED ITS DETERIORATION.

HOWEVER ON THE LAST IMAGES, COLDER SUMMITS CAN BE OBSERVED WITH THE

BUILDING OF A FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,

HELPED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STORM. CIMSS DATA SHOW AN INCREASE OF VWS,

CONFIRMED BY THE FORMATION OF THE START OF A CIRRUS BOW.



SUNDAY, VWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, AND SOUTH OF 27S, THE OHC IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL. THUS, THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND

PROGRESSIVELY BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM MONDAY.



TUESDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD OVER

THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS

SOUTH. WEDNESDAY, THE LOW COULD BE DRAGGED SOUTHWARD BY A LOW LEVEL

TROUGH CIRCULATING EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS.



FOR THE LAST DAYS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK. CEP

FORECAST THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH, WHICH COULD

STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. BUT CEP EPS AND GFS SUGGEST THE

CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TO THIS

LAST SCENARIO.=