WTIO30 FMEE 230632 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20152016 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CORENTIN) 2.A POSITION 2016/01/23 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 72.4 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 590 SE: 410 SW: 540 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 410 SE: 310 SW: 310 NW: 230 48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2016/01/23 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2016/01/24 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2016/01/24 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2016/01/25 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2016/01/25 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2016/01/26 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2016/01/27 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2016/01/28 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.5-;CI=4.0+ OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, CLOUD SUMMITS HAVE WARMED AND THE RAGGED EYE HAS WIDENED, RATHER SUGGESTING A LIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AT 06Z, CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. 0445Z ASCAT SWATH COVERS THE LLCC AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. IT SHOWS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOT STRONGER THAN 50KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POORER CLOUD PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THUS, CONSIDERING THE RECENT EVOLUTION AND THE LAST MODEL OUTPUTS, IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT CORENTIN WILL REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BENEFIT FROM THE STRENGTHENING OF ITS SOUTHERN EVACUATION CHANNEL BUT RATHER BEGIN TO UNDERGO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT PRODUCE BY A SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET BRANCH . SUNDAY, SOUTH OF 27S, THE OHC WILL BECOME MARGINAL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM SUNDAY EVENING. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MAY MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE THE SPREAD HAS INCREASED ON THE 12Z CYCLE.=