WTIO30 FMEE 230130



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/3/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)



2.A POSITION 2016/01/23 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 71.7 E

(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE

DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 630 SE: 610 SW: 540 NW: 350

34 KT NE: 330 SE: 330 SW: 310 NW: 230

48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/01/23 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/01/24 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/01/24 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2016/01/25 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2016/01/25 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2016/01/26 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/01/27 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2016/01/28 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0+



THE OVERALL PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVED WITH A 60 +

NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE. LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE

STILL RUN FROM 57 TO 68 KT (10 MIN WINDS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS

MAINTAIN AT 60 KT ON THE LOW SIDE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LACK OF

INNER CORE STRUCTURE SEEN ON MW IMAGERY (CF SSMIS AT 2310Z)



CORENTIN HAS STILL SOME FEW HOURS TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE

THAT LATER TODAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND START TO CLOSE THE WINDOWS OF

CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.



SUNDAY, SOUTH OF 27S, THE OHC WILL BECOME MARGINAL. THE LOW IS

FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM SUNDAY

EVENING. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MAY MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD OVER THE

NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH.



THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, IN RATHER GOOD

AGREEMENT EXCEPT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE THE SPREAD

HAS INCREASED ON THE 12Z CYCLE.=