WTIO30 FMEE 220704



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)



2.A POSITION 2016/01/22 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 72.4 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :130 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 610 SE: 460 SW: 520 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 430 SE: 220 SW: 300 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW:





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/01/22 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/01/23 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2016/01/23 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/01/24 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/01/24 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2016/01/25 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/01/26 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2016/01/27 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0-



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER. THE

START OF A RAGGED EYE APPEARED A FEW HOURS AGO. THE STRUCTURE BECAME

QUITE SYMMETRIC. ASCAT SWATHS (0411Z AND 0504Z) SHOW AN INCREASE OF

THE WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATION IS IN

AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER AGENCIES.



TODAY, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON

THE SOUTHERN SIDE, AHEAD OF A POLAR TROUGH, THE LOW COULD DRAW

BENEFIT FROM EVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND

DEEPEN QUITE RAPIDLY. CONSEQUENTLY, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE

MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS EAST, AND TRACK PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH, THEN BEND

SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON SATURDAY.



FROM SUNDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND THE OHC DECREASE SOUTH OF 27S. THE LOW

MAY WEAKEN AND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM SUNDAY EVENING.

THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MAY MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN

SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH.



THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, IN RATHER GOOD

AGREEMENT.=