WTIO30 FMEE 211838



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/3/20152016

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)



2.A POSITION 2016/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 73.3 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE

DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 610 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 430 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/01/22 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/01/22 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/01/23 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/01/23 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/01/24 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/01/24 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/01/25 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2016/01/26 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.0-



OVER THE LAST  HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY DEVELOP NEAR THE

CENTER, MAINLY IN THE EASTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING AROUND THE

CENTER.

1702Z ASCAT SWATHS COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOW

A LARGE MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS, WITH THE MAX WINDS IN THE EASTERN PART

OF THE CIRCULATION.



OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, CORENTIN IS LIKELY TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD,

OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.

WHILE REMAINING UNDER A CELL OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS, THE

SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN STEADILY WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR ENVIRONMENTAL

CONSTRAINTS.



TOMORROW, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL

ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, AHEAD OF A POLAR TROUGH, THE LOW COULD DRAW

BENEFIT FROM EVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND

DEEPEN QUITE RAPIDLY. CONSEQUENTLY, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE

MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS EAST, AND TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON FRIDAY, THEN

BEND SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON SATURDAY.



FROM SUNDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND THE OHC DECREASE SOUTH OF 27S. THE LOW

MAY WEAKEN AND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM SUNDAY EVENING.

THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MAY MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN

SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH.



THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, IN RATHER GOOD

AGREEMENT.=