WTPS51 PGTW 192100 WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160119193519 2016011918 07P VICTOR 011 01 250 03 SATL 060 T000 211S 1679W 065 R064 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 105 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD T012 214S 1689W 055 R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 105 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD T024 218S 1700W 050 R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD T036 221S 1711W 045 R034 210 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD T048 224S 1726W 040 R034 190 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD T072 244S 1745W 040 R034 175 NE QD 250 SE QD 200 SW QD 130 NW QD T096 276S 1746W 035 T120 306S 1743W 035 AMP 096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 011 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 167.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 167.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.4S 168.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.8S 170.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.1S 171.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.4S 172.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.4S 174.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.6S 174.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 30.6S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 168.2W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM EAST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ASYMMETRIC EAST-WEST ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED 45-NM EYE. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, IT HAS BECOME WEAKER AND SHALLOWER IN DEPTH. BLENDED MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITIBLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO TC VICTOR FROM THE NORTH. THIS, COMBINED WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T4.0, RESULT IN A REDUCTION OF INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KTS. TC VICTOR REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (10-20 KTS) WITH A WELL-DEFINED EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. DUE TO ITS RELATIVELY SHALLOW VERTICAL EXTENT, THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC VICTOR IS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND RECEDE EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC VICTOR TO TURN TO THE SOUTH. CONCURRENTLY, TC VICTOR WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, MAINTAINING STRENGTH FOR A SHORT TIME DUE TO INCREASED OUTFLOW, BEFORE AGAIN WEAKENING AS SHEAR INCREASES. TC VICTOR WILL BEGIN A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS SUPPORTING A WESTWARD TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING, BUT SPREADS BEYOND TAU 48 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD BEYOND TAU 48 LEADS TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// 0716011318 121S1651W 25 0716011400 126S1649W 25 0716011406 131S1648W 25 0716011412 136S1649W 30 0716011418 140S1652W 35 0716011500 143S1655W 40 0716011506 145S1658W 45 0716011512 144S1660W 55 0716011512 144S1660W 55 0716011518 143S1661W 65 0716011518 143S1661W 65 0716011600 145S1661W 70 0716011600 145S1661W 70 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011718 174S1664W 65 0716011718 174S1664W 65 0716011800 182S1663W 65 0716011800 182S1663W 65 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011818 201S1662W 90 0716011818 201S1662W 90 0716011818 201S1662W 90 0716011900 205S1666W 85 0716011900 205S1666W 85 0716011900 205S1666W 85 0716011906 208S1671W 80 0716011906 208S1671W 80 0716011906 208S1671W 80 0716011912 210S1676W 75 0716011912 210S1676W 75 0716011912 210S1676W 75 0716011918 211S1679W 65 0716011918 211S1679W 65 0716011918 211S1679W 65