WTPS31 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 169.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 169.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.5S 170.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.5S 172.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.0S 173.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 23.3S 174.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.1S 175.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 28.8S 176.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 169.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE, SUPPORTING THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07P REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC VICTOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DESPITE THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS AFTER TAU 36, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN NEAR TAU 48, THE TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOW LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//