WTPS31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 166.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 166.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.2S 166.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.9S 166.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.2S 167.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.4S 168.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.4S 170.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.2S 173.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 24.8S 175.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 166.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 180614Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. CLOUD-TOPS HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5, WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC VICTOR WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN AREA OF WARM SST (27C) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 07P IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND THEN WEST. AFTER TAU 72, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, RECURVING THE SYSTEM, AND THEN ACCELERATING IT SOUTHWARD. TC 07P WILL BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH COLDER WATER AND HIGHER VWS VALUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BY TAU 120 AND THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//