WTPS31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 166.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 166.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.6S 166.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.9S 166.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.8S 166.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.1S 167.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.4S 169.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.6S 171.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.8S 174.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 166.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THE DEEP LAYERED BANDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF TC 07P. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS TO REFLECT THIS LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN STEADY AT T4.0 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SUPPORT THIS RECENT DROP IN INTENSITY. TC 07P IS TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDI- CATES THE STR WILL BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC VICTOR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER WHICH, TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS STR EXTENSION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, SUGGESTING A MORE STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) DECREASING BELOW 27 DEGREES CELSIUS POLEWARD OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SLOWLY INCREASES AFTER TAU 24. THE FORECASTS PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 24 IS BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT PERSISTING WITH THE AN OBSERVED INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO A MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. EVENTUALLY THE DECREASING SSTS AND THE STEADY INCREASE IN VWS WILL CREATE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//