WTPA41 PHFO 130853 TCDCP1 HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016 1100 PM HST TUE JAN 12 2016 DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... HURRICANE PALI CONTINUES ON A MODEST WEAKENING TREND THAT APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS BECOME NEARLY INDISCERNIBLE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY... ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE WARM SPOT SURROUNDED BY COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE LED TO A LOWERING OF THE DATA-T NUMBERS DERIVED BY THE FIX AGENCIES...WITH A UNANIMOUS 4.5/77 KT DERIVED BY SAB/PHFO/PGTW...ALTHOUGH CURRENT INTENSITY /CI/ ESTIMATES REMAIN 5.0/90 KT. UW-CIMSS SATCON VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 60 KT...ALTHOUGH ADT CI VALUES ARE NEAR 75 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KT. AFTER WRITING ADVISORIES ON PALI FOR NEARLY SIX DAYS...THE SYSTEM HAS NEVER BEEN NORTH OF 10N...AND IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA IN WHICH IT ORIGINALLY FORMED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 190/06 KT...WITH PALI APPARENTLY IN THE MIDST OF MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AFTER A SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLIER TODAY. THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS...ANTICIPATING THAT PALI WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED WELL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 18N-20N...WITH THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKING WESTWARD WITHIN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS...WHILE NOT AS SLOW OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT PALI WILL STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE LEVELING OFF. WHILE SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK CAN SUPPORT A STRONG CYCLONE...AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE... IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORESEE PALI MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT LOSES LATITUDE AND BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. AS PALI BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT...REPRESENTING A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 4.9N 171.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 4.2N 171.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 3.6N 172.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 3.1N 173.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 2.8N 174.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 2.6N 177.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 3.0N 179.5E 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 3.6N 177.0E 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD