WTPA41 PHFO 111451

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

500 AM HST MON JAN 11 2016



DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER

THE CORE OF PALI...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE

CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRANSIENT WARM

SPOTS THAT HAD BEEN OBSERVED LAST EVENING HAVE DISAPPEARED. THERE

CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER ACCORDING

TO THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO WE ASSUME PALI HAS NOT

WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LATEST

ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF

PALI WERE 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS

AND UW/CIMSS GUIDANCE. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM HFO AND SAB AND 2.0/30 KT

FROM JTWC. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 3.4/53 KT. BASED ON

THESE ESTIMATES...WE HAVE WEAKENED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 065/04 KT. PALI IS A RATHER

SMALL CYCLONE AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE...SO BETA DRIFT IS A

MINIMAL STEERING MECHANISM. THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE

SYNOPTIC FORCING SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT CAUSE PALI TO BEGIN ACCELERATING

AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE VICINITY

OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH BETWEEN THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22N...AND WESTERLY FLOW

TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE

REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PALI CONTINUING TO MOVE

EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE

SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE SOUTH FROM 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE

CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE OLD ONE

BEYOND 36 HOURS. NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP PALI WELL

EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE THROUGH DAY 5.



SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF PALI...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HIGH

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE

FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN

A BIT DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE LATEST IVCN STILL

SUGGESTS THAT PALI MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36

HOURS...SO WE HAVE KEPT THIS TREND IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. AFTER

THAT...THE LATEST FORECAST WEAKENS PALI SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE

PREVIOUS ONE BY 48 HOURS. THE DAYS 4 AND 5 FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE

STRONGER NOW SINCE WE ARE NOT SENDING PALI AS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR

AS EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/1500Z  8.3N 172.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  12/0000Z  8.4N 172.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  12/1200Z  7.8N 171.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  13/0000Z  6.8N 171.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  13/1200Z  5.6N 171.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  14/1200Z  4.0N 173.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  15/1200Z  3.5N 174.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  16/1200Z  3.0N 176.5W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON