WTPA41 PHFO 091443

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

500 AM HST SAT JAN 09 2016



THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALI HAS BEEN DEVOID

OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC TO 2.0/30 KT OUT

OF HFO AND SAB. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0845 UTC HAD NUMEROUS 40 KT

RETRIEVALS...WHICH SUGGESTS WINDS OF AROUND 45 KT DUE TO THE

PLATFORM/S LOW BIAS AT THOSE SPEEDS. GIVEN THE NEAR ABSENCE OF

CONVECTION DURING THE TIME SINCE THE ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY WILL

BE LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



PALI IS MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...WITH ITS CURRENT MOTION AT

285/04 KT. PALI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROUGHLY WEST TO

EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE CYCLONE.

THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH MARKS A ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF

ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP

RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW PALI

STALLING WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN

SLOWLY MEANDERING IN VARYING DIRECTIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE...

LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL MODEL SPREAD. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW THE

CYCLONE DIVING SOUTHWARD LATE IN DAY THREE AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL

TRACK FORECAST WAS CHANGED LITTLE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF ON THE

LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.



SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

OF AROUND 15 KT SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND IT

WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO REESTABLISH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION

NEAR THE CENTER OF PALI. AS A RESULT...THE WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN

ACCELERATED WITH THIS ADVISORY...BRINGING PALI TO A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...THEN HOLDING THE INTENSITY CONSTANT

THEREAFTER IN THE EVENT THAT CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND LGEM BUT HAS A SLIGHTLY FASTER

WEAKENING RATE. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER WEAKENING

TREND...WITH THE OUTLIER REMAINING THE GFDL WHICH PREDICTS

INTENSIFICATION.











FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/1500Z  8.1N 173.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  10/0000Z  8.1N 174.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  10/1200Z  8.1N 174.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  11/0000Z  8.1N 174.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  11/1200Z  8.0N 174.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 72H  12/1200Z  7.5N 175.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 96H  13/1200Z  5.9N 175.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

120H  14/1200Z  4.0N 176.4W   30 KT  35 MPH



$$

FORECASTER WROE