WTPA41 PHFO 090241

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

500 PM HST FRI JAN 08 2016



DEEP CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL STORM PALI HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY

COLLAPSED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LLCC IS NOW CLEARLY SEEN FAR EAST OF

REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN VISIBLE LOOPS...GREATLY INCREASING FIX

AND MOTION CONFIDENCE. IN SPITE OF THE RAPID DECREASE IN DEEP

CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE ROBUST. A WELL

PLACED 2049 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 50 KT WINDS WITHIN THE

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. ALL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED FOR

THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THIS ASCAT PASS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON ORGANIZATION OF DEEP

CONVECTION...WERE NOTICEABLY LOWER THAN INTENSITY DEPICTED IN ASCAT

AT 3.0...45 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS

EVEN LOWER AT 40 KT. ASCAT IS MOST COMPELLING HERE...AND THE

INITIAL PALI INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55

KT.



TO MAINTAIN A PLAUSIBLE BEST TRACK...THE 1800 UTC POSITION WAS

REBESTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO GIVE A SMOOTH NORTHWEST MOTION...315

DEGREES...AT 4 KT. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW LATITUDE

TROUGH INDUCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...DEPICTING A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH DAY TWO...THEN A CONTINUED

TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. MODELS

CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE SOUTHWEST TURN BUT AGREE

RATHER WELL THROUGH DAY TWO. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE

ARC OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT FOR

INITIAL MOTION. FORWARD MOTION WAS INCREASED ON DAYS THREE THROUGH

FIVE SINCE THIS IS NOW BECOMING MORE WIDELY INDICATED IN GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN GFEX AND TVCN

CONSENSUS.



WITH SSTS GREATER THAN 28C AND DECREASING SHEAR FORECAST AFTER 12

HOURS...PALI WILL LIKELY SURVIVE DISSIPATION IN SPITE OF THE RAPID

LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS PALI

WITHIN THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH ITS LIFETIME...LIKELY

PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. ONLY GFDL INTENSIFIES PALI...LEAVING

THE VAST BULK OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR SLOW WEAKENING. THE

CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND...KEEPING PALI AT TROPICAL

STORM STRENGTH THROUGH DAY FIVE WHILE KEEPING IT WITHIN THE CENTRAL

NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0300Z  7.6N 172.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  09/1200Z  7.9N 173.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  10/0000Z  8.2N 174.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  10/1200Z  8.3N 174.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  11/0000Z  8.2N 174.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  12/0000Z  7.7N 175.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  13/0000Z  6.7N 175.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

120H  14/0000Z  5.5N 176.8W   35 KT  40 MPH



$$

FORECASTER POWELL