WTPA41 PHFO 080256

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

500 PM HST THU JAN 07 2016



PAIL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD TOPS

HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM ALL SITES. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL

INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.



FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

SHOWING PALI TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF

PALI AND THE STORM WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN

THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND

WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE MODELS DIVERGE AT THAT POINT

WITH MOST SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SLOW-MOVING AND CURVING WEST

THEN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL

SPREAD WITH SOME MODELS TURNING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY SOUTHEAST AND

OTHERS KEEPING IT MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST. I HAVE KEPT PALI ON A

FISHHOOK-SHAPED TRACK...TURNING SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH FOLLOWING THE

MODEL CONSENSUS. IN ANY CASE FORWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE

SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE

CHANGE FOR 36 HOURS...THEN VERY SLOW WEAKENING. DESPITE THE

SEASON...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK

IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE

LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH

THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT

IN WHICH THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0300Z  5.2N 171.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  08/1200Z  5.9N 171.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  09/0000Z  7.0N 172.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  09/1200Z  7.6N 173.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  10/0000Z  8.0N 173.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  11/0000Z  8.2N 174.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  12/0000Z  8.0N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

120H  13/0000Z  7.5N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON