WTPA41 PHFO 072101

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

1100 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM

PALI.



SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE

FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC AND SAB TO 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO. BASED ON

THE IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN

SSMIS PASS AT 1733 UTC.



FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

SHOWING PALI TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF

PALI AND THE STORM WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN

THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND

WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE MODELS SPLIT AT THAT POINT

WITH SOME SHOWING PALI VEERING NORTH THEN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND

MOST SHOWING THE SYSTEM CURVING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHEAST.

I HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATTER GROUP OF MODELS. IN EITHER CASE FORWARD

MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...

ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER

THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL DAYS 4 AND 5. DESPITE

THE SEASON...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK

IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE

LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR

ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE

DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT IN WHICH THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/2100Z  4.7N 171.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  08/0600Z  5.7N 171.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  08/1800Z  6.8N 172.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  09/0600Z  7.3N 173.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  09/1800Z  7.3N 173.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  10/1800Z  7.2N 173.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  11/1800Z  7.0N 173.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  12/1800Z  6.8N 173.5W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON