WTPA41 PHFO 010847

TCDCP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP092015

1100 PM HST THU DEC 31 2015



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C IS STRUGGLING AS A VIABLE TROPICAL

CYCLONE AS THE FINAL MINUTES OF 2015 FADE AWAY HERE IN THE NORTH

CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE PREVIOUS ANALYSTS WERE LIKELY FOCUSED ON AN

APPARENT LLCC TIED TO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT MOVED RAPIDLY

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...

LOOPS OF 10-MINUTE INTERVAL HIGH RESOLUTION HIMAWARI VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT WERE AVAILABLE PRIOR TO 0600Z SHOWED A BROAD

CIRCULATION WELL EAST OF THIS CONVECTIVE BLOB. THE PROBLEM IS THAT

THERE WAS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS BROAD CIRCULATION AT THE

TIME THIS CURRENT FORECAST WAS BEING PREPARED. AS A RESULT...SAB AND

JTWC WERE UNABLE TO CLASSIFY NINE-C EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH

SAB WAS ABLE TO PROVIDE A CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE. THE LATEST

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PHFO IS 2.0/30 KT.

POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE STARTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR NINE-C...

SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE STRUGGLING DEPRESSION AS A 30 KT SYSTEM AT

THIS TIME. NOTE THAT IF WE ARE UNABLE TO RECEIVE CONFIRMATION THAT

NINE-C IS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...WE

MAY BE FORCED TO CHANGE ITS STATUS TO A POST-TROPICAL / REMNANT LOW

OR INDICATE IT HAS DISSIPATED.



THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATE FOR NINE-C IS 270/02 KT. APPARENTLY...DUE

TO THE CHANGE OF THE YEAR TO 2016 IN UTC WHILE IT IS STILL 2015 HERE

IN HAWAII...WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO RETRIEVE MANY OF OUR USUAL TRACK

AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE

UNCERTAIN INITIAL POSITIONS PROVIDED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY

PACKAGES...WE HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST TRACK BY SHIFTING IT TO THE

SOUTH AND SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS

A BLEND OF EXTRAPOLATION AND BETA ADVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST

FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT WE ARE NOW INDICATING NINE-C WILL

NOT BECOME A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT ACTUALLY CROSSES THE

INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE DURING DAYS 4-5. OBVIOUSLY...THIS BECOMES A

MOOT POINT IF NINE-C DOES NOT SURVIVE DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  01/0900Z  2.2N 176.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  01/1800Z  2.2N 177.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  02/0600Z  2.3N 177.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  02/1800Z  2.3N 177.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  03/0600Z  2.3N 178.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 72H  04/0600Z  2.4N 179.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 96H  05/0600Z  2.5N 179.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

120H  06/0600Z  2.7N 179.5E   35 KT  40 MPH



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON