WTXS51 PGTW 221500 WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 151122161040 2015112212 03S ANNABELLE 005 01 140 09 SATL 040 T000 127S 0722E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD T012 143S 0735E 060 R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW QD 105 NW QD T024 160S 0752E 055 R050 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD T036 181S 0773E 045 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD T048 203S 0790E 040 R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD T072 233S 0800E 030 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 005 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 72.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 72.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.3S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.0S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.1S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.3S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.3S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 72.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND MOSTLY DISCONNECTED FROM THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE INCREASE IN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS), SUPPORTS THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CURRENT INTENSITY. A 220816Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 03S IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 12, TC ANNABELLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THIS MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.// 0315111806 33S 820E 20 0315111812 47S 812E 20 0315111818 56S 802E 20 0315111900 64S 791E 25 0315111906 69S 781E 25 0315111912 78S 772E 25 0315111918 88S 761E 25 0315112000 95S 748E 25 0315112006 99S 731E 30 0315112012 100S 721E 35 0315112018 100S 718E 35 0315112100 101S 715E 35 0315112106 104S 714E 45 0315112112 107S 714E 45 0315112118 111S 714E 50 0315112200 116S 715E 50 0315112206 120S 716E 50 0315112212 127S 722E 55 0315112212 127S 722E 55=