WTXS31 PGTW 241500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 009//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 009

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   241200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 81.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 25 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 81.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   250000Z --- 25.6S 82.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

241500Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 81.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT

25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL AND HAS

BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED

SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION

WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK

ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE

SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS)

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 26

DEGREES CELSIUS). IN VIEW OF THESE, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY

ERODE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS

SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL

BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT

WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 12 FEET.//