WTXS31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 78.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 78.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.6S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.5S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 78.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 240144Z F-18 91GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS WEAKER THAN 12HRS AGO, AND IS ASSESSED AT 45KTS, BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW DVORAK VALUES BETWEEN 2.5/3.5 (35- 55KTS). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO 30-40KTS VWS, DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TC ANNABELLE IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z.//