WTXS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 76.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 76.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.3S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.2S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.7S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 77.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WRAPPING BENEATH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP. THE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO DECREASED, LEADING TO A DROP IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS. TC 03S HAS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW; HOWEVER, THE VWS IS DETERIORATING THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND CAUSING THE CURRENT WEAKENING. TC ANNABELLE IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//