WTXS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 73.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 73.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.4S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.5S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.9S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.6S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 74.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET HAS RECENTLY ENHANCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FLARE, BUT IN GENERAL, TC 03S HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME HARSHER. THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO MARGINAL LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS), KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION FROM BUILDING AND PERSISTING NEAR THE CORE. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS BEEN BUILDING WESTWARD AND ENGAGING WITH TC 03S MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 26 AND 27 CELSIUS, LENDING MARGINAL SUPPORT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 03S. AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST, SSTS WILL DROP OFF AND VWS WILL INCREASE NOTICEABLY, LENDING TO A RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND EVENTUALLY THE DISSIPATION OF TC 03S BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//