WTXS31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 72.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 72.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.3S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.0S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.1S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.3S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.3S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 72.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND MOSTLY DISCONNECTED FROM THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE INCREASE IN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS), SUPPORTS THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CURRENT INTENSITY. A 220816Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 03S IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 12, TC ANNABELLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THIS MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.//