WTXS31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 11.5S 71.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 71.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 12.5S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.1S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.8S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 17.6S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.7S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.7S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 71.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS TC 03S HAS MOVED INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A MINOR EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF SUMATRA EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 03S. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STR EXTENSION WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 96. TC 03S IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE, LEADING TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION, WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPROVE BRIEFLY. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING OF TC ANNABELLE BEYOND TAU 36. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID- LATITUDE FLOW WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA- TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DUE TO DIFFERING LEVELS OF WEAKENING, GUIDANCE SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//=