WTIO30 FMEE 230000



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/1/20152016

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ANNABELLE)



2.A POSITION 2015/11/23 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 73.5 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL

FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 130







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2015/11/24 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2015/11/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/11/26 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/11/27 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

120H: 2015/11/28 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT

LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

FT=CI=3.5-



DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS VERY COLD AND WELL ORGANIZED ON THE LAST

SATELIET IMAGERY.

THE LAST MICRO-WAVES DATA AVAILABLE OF 21H59Z  (DMSP-F15) INDICATE A

VERY SLIGTH TILD BETWWEN 37 AND 85,  BUT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT SEEM BY

NOW TO SUFFER FROM THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REACHING ABOUT

25KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, DUE TO THE SPEED F THE SYSTEM.

INDEED, THE LLCC IS MOVING FASTER SOUTH-EASTWARD, AND IS FORECAST TO

ACCELERATE MORE CLEARLY DURING THE NEXT HOURS SOUTHEASTWARDS.



THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR AN ACCELERATING

SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT, BECOMING SOUTH-EAST FROM THE NEXT

NIGHT, TOWARDS A WIDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.

THE NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ABOVE THE SYSTEM,

AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH.THE FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE

SAME DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD HELP IN A FIRST TIME

THE SYSTEM TO USE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN ITS

IONTENSITY OR SLIGHTLY INTENSITY UP TO TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE BEGIN

TO SUFFER FROM THE STRENGHTEN OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

HOWEVER ON THIS PATH, ANNABELLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER TOMORROW LOW

HEAT POTENTIAL SEAS, SOUTH OF 15S.



ON TUESDAY, THE LLCC IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND

SUBTROPICAL JET AND ALLOW A TEMPORARY DEEPENING.

FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE

WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE, AND THE

LLCC IS LIKELY TO FILL UP RAPIDLY. THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW

SHOULD THEN BEND EASTWARD, BETWEEN 20S AND 25S, STEERED BY THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=