WTIO30 FMEE 220621 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/1/20152016 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANNABELLE) 2.A POSITION 2015/11/22 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 71.7 E (ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 90 34 KT NE: 70 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 70 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/11/22 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/11/23 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2015/11/23 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 48H: 2015/11/24 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 60H: 2015/11/24 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/11/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/11/26 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=3.0+ AND CI=3.5- DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION FLUCTUATING. THE SYSTEM IS IN A SMALL CDO PATTERN, WITH A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. THE LAST MICRO-WAVE PICTURES (SSMIS F-18 22/0206) DEPICT A DISCONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION BAND AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF CENTRAL CORE. THE CURRENT SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WAS RATHER SLOW DURING THE LAST HOURS. AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST MOVEMENT TOWARDS A LARGE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED RATHER FAVOURABLE, WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ONE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AHEAD OF A UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOURS. OVER THE NEXT NIGHT, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEARLY UNFAVORABLE. THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND QUICKLY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. MOREOVER, THE HEAT CONTENT WILL BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 15S. ON TUESDAY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET AND ALLOW A TEMPORARY DEEPENING. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LLCC SHOULD FILL UP PROGRESSIVELY. THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD THEN BEND EASTWARD STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE QUICK BUILD.=