WTIO30 FMEE 220027 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/1/20152016 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANNABELLE) 2.A POSITION 2015/11/22 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 72.0 E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 70 34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 40 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/11/22 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 48H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 60H: 2015/11/24 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/11/26 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=3.5- DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STRONG IN VICINITY OF THE CENTER AND EVEN STRENGTHENED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS NOW UNDER AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN, MAKING THE EXACT POSITIONING DIFFICULT WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA. THE CURRENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK IS SLOW DURING THE LAST HOURS. AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SIMILAR MOVEMENT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ONE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE DAY. THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THEN CLOSE AROUND MIDDAY, ANNABELLE REACHING ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY. OVER THE NEXT NIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND QUICKLY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. ANNABELLE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY. MOREOVER, THE HEAT CONTENT WILL BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 15S. FROM TUESDAY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET AND ALLOW A TEMPORARY DEEPENING. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LLCC SHOULD FILL UP PROGRESSIVELY. THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD THEN BEND EASTWARD STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE QUICK BUILD.=