WTIO30 FMEE 210014



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20152016

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ANNABELLE)



2.A POSITION 2015/11/21 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 70.9 E

(TEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL NINE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT :   UNDETERMINED



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70

34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW:  NW:







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/11/21 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/11/22 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2015/11/22 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

120H: 2015/11/26 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

FT=CI=3.0-



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE

CENTER INTO A IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN, WITH A LARGE BANDE IN THE EAST.



THE CURRENT WESTWARDS TRACK HAS CLEARLY SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT

HOURS, ALL AVAILABLE NWP FORECAST TRACK TO BEND SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS

THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE

SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE

EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE SYSTEM

SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A

GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.



ALONG THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITH A

GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND TWO OUTFLOW

CHANNELS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION

SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UP TO THE GREATER

STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM.

BUT ON SUNDAY, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD A

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. ON TUESDAY,

THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS IN THE TRADES FLOW FILLING UP

PROGRESSIVELY.=