WTIO31 PGTW 060700 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 61.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 61.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.7N 60.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.5N 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 12.3N 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 12.1N 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 11.8N 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 12.3N 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 13.1N 45.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 61.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED SLIGHTLY TIGHTER INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY LLCC FEATURE IN THE 060337Z F18 PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE WRAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HORN OF AFRICA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN INTO WESTERN YEMEN AFTER TAU 72. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TEMPERED ONLY BY COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//