WTIO31 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050221Z NOV 15// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 64.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 64.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 13.8N 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 13.5N 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 13.2N 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.0N 57.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 12.5N 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 12.1N 50.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 12.7N 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 64.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HORN OF AFRICA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN INTO THE GULF OF ADEN AFTER TAU 96. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITION TEMPERED ONLY BY COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOTICEABLE SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS TENTATIVE STORM MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. THIS SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 050230).//