WTIO31 PGTW 312100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 57.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 57.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 13.7N 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 13.8N 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 14.1N 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.7N 50.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 16.8N 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 56.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RESURGENCE OF CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 04-NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 311453Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 22-NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED WIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON A 311803Z ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE CURRENT CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER YEMEN NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO OFFSET THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC CHAPALA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED YEMENI TERRAIN, LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//=