WTIO31 PGTW 302100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 60.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 60.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 13.8N 59.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 13.8N 57.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 13.9N 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 14.1N 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 15.3N 51.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 16.7N 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 18.2N 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 59.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUED WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CORE; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT WITH A DISTINCT 10NM EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE, BUT NOT YET IMPACTING THE CORE. A 301727Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, BUT ALSO SHOWS THE DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 124 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED OVER INDIA. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. TC CHAPALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FURTHER IMPACTS THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL YEMEN. CONCURRENTLY, TC 04A WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, SPECIFICALLY THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//