WTIO31 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 60.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 60.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 13.8N 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 13.8N 57.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 13.8N 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 14.0N 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 14.9N 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 16.9N 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 18.8N 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 60.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI INDICATES A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH DEEP CONVECTION ERODING, HOWEVER, CORE CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED WITH A 12 NM EYE. A 301006Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS A 120 NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A SPIRAL BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL VENTING INTO AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST INDIA. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 140 KNOTS. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THEN WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 60 BUT DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72. SEVERAL TRACKERS, NAMELY GFS, AEMN AND HWRF, RECURVE 04A NORTHWARD, HOWEVER, GFS APPEARS TO ERRONEOUSLY TRACK INTO THE STR WHILE WEAKENING THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE A MORE REALISTIC, SLOWER TURN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 140 KNOTS BY TAU 12 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//