WTIO31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 56.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 56.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 13.6N 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 13.8N 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 14.2N 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 14.9N 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 17.2N 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 56.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 06-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A DEEP CONVECTIVE CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE POSITION. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN UNCHANGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT REMAIN AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER YEMEN JUST BEFORE TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO OFFSET THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC CHAPALA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//