WTPS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 13.1S 177.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 177.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.3S 175.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.1S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.2S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.3S 170.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 176.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH WESTERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 160616Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGES RELAYS THIS CONVECTION AND IMPROVES OVER ALL POSITION CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH 20 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR EXTENSION AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER ITS INFLUENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 02P HAS A 24 HOUR WINDOW IN WHICH SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS IN-PHASE WITH VWS. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 24, VWS WILL INCREASE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. ALTERNATIVELY, THE SYSTEM MAY DECAY BEFORE THAT PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//