WTPA45 PHFO 261453

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  47

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192015

500 AM HST MON OCT 26 2015



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE

RAPIDLY DURING THE NIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT PRESENT...AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT FOG PRODUCT

IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT

OLAF...WITH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATES CURRENTLY

RUNNING 27 TO 30 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS CAME IN AT

3.0/45 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES REMAIN STRONGER DUE TO CONSTRAINTS...RANGING FROM 3.5/55

KT TO 4.0/65 KT...BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE CONTINUED

DEGENERATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL

BE LOWERED TO 50 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.



OLAF CONTINUES TO TRACK STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/09 KT. OLAF IS BEING STEERED

PRIMARILY BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL

PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OLAF TO THE NORTHEAST

WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR

SO. THEREAFTER...OLAF IS FORECAST TO BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED

WITH THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING SHARPLY BACK TO THE

SOUTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEAVES OLAF BEHIND AND A

STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN IS NUDGED TOWARD

TVCN THEREAFTER.



CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AS OLAF WILL BE IMPACTED BY

PERSISTENT STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...AND WILL BE MOVING

OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW

INTENSITY FORECAST WEAKENS OLAF TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 36

HOURS...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION

EXPECTED BY DAY 4. THIS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

ICON CONSENSUS AND WITH THE GFDL/HWRF.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  26/1500Z 24.6N 141.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  27/0000Z 25.5N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  27/1200Z 26.7N 137.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  28/0000Z 27.4N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  28/1200Z 26.9N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  29/1200Z 25.0N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER JACOBSON