WTPA45 PHFO 252039

TCDCP5



HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  44

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192015

1100 AM HST SUN OCT 25 2015



THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES

REMAIN 4.5/77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THUS HAVE KEPT THE

INITIAL INTENSITY AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. RECENT SSMIS

AND WINDSAT IMAGERY INDICATE A SLIGHTLY TILTED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW

LEVEL CENTER LIKELY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AS SEEN IN

CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.



OLAF CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST BETWEEN AN EAST

TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND

A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR

OLAF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE

NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BEYOND 48

HOURS WITH THE GFS AND GFDL CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST TRACK WHILE

THE ECMWF...UKMET AND NAVGEM SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND TURNING IT

SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS THE TROUGH MOVES

AWAY TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST SLOWING OLAF DOWN AND TURNING IT TOWARD THE RIGHT

BEYOND 48 HOURS.



THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY PACKAGE. OLAF IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 20 TO 25 KT OF

WESTERLY SHEAR. SHIPS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH SHEAR VALUES OVER THE

SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH COOLER SST

VALUES ALONG ITS PATH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AS

INDICATED BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO

WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO A

DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAY 4 WE EXPECT OLAF TO BECOME

VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH JUST A SHALLOW LOW EXPECTED WITH

DISSIPATION FORECAST BY DAY 5.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  25/2100Z 22.5N 143.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  26/0600Z 23.8N 142.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  26/1800Z 25.5N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  27/0600Z 27.1N 137.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  27/1800Z 28.4N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  28/1800Z 28.4N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 96H  29/1800Z 26.2N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER BURKE