WTPA45 PHFO 230846

TCDCP5



HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192015

1100 PM HST THU OCT 22 2015



OLAF APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS...WITH ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION NOW FORMING AN UNBROKEN RING

AROUND A WELL-DEFINED 10 NM WIDE EYE. THE SATELLITE AGENCIES HAVE

PICKED UP ON THE COOLER CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE RING AS

WELL AS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EYE IN IR...RESULTING IN HIGHER DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5...102 KT...FROM ALL THREE. UW-CIMSS ADT

WAS HIGHER AT 6.0...115 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE

PRESENTATION AND THESE HIGHER ESTIMATES...WE WILL ASSIGN AN INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



INITIAL MOTION IS DUE NORTH...OR 360/08 KT...AS OLAF CONTINUES

MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE

MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A LARGE NORTHWARD COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A PAIR OF TROUGHS PASSING

EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF OLAF NUDGING THIS SYSTEM EVER MORE

INSISTENTLY TO THE EAST WAS WELL. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE

REMAINS TIGHT...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY LESS SHARP RECURVING TRACK

BEYOND 72 HOURS VERSUS LAST TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK

CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE

LEFT MADE FOR INITIAL MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE DAYS 4 AND 5

FORECAST POSITIONS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS

ONES TO STAY NEAR TVCN CONSENSUS.



SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ACROSS

OLAF...RANGING FROM 12 TO 28 KT...RESPECTIVELY. WHILE OUTFLOW

APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...THE

INNER CORE OF OLAF APPEARS TO BE UNAFFECTED BY SHEAR. HOWEVER SINCE

THE 0600 UTC ANALYSIS CYCLE...A BIT OF ASYMMETRY HAS DEVELOPED IN

THE DEEP CONVECTIVE RING...WITH THE BULKIEST AND COOLEST CLOUD TOPS

NOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS

WEAKENING ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH SHIPS

DISSIPATING OLAF BY DAY FOUR. THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OLAF MUCH

MORE SLOWLY...WITH ECMWF KEEPING OLAF AT HURRICANE STRENGTH EVEN ON

DAY FIVE...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF EXTRATROPICAL DYNAMICS. WE WILL

KEEP THE SAME WEAKENING TREND FROM LAST TIME...MAKING OLAF A

TROPICAL STORM AGAIN AFTER 72 HOURS...THEN KEEPING IT ALIVE AS A

VIABLE TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH DAY FIVE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  23/0900Z 15.1N 146.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  23/1800Z 16.1N 146.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  24/0600Z 17.4N 145.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  24/1800Z 18.7N 145.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  25/0600Z 19.8N 144.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  26/0600Z 22.2N 142.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  27/0600Z 24.9N 138.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  28/0600Z 27.5N 135.1W   45 KT  50 MPH



$$

FORECASTER POWELL