WTPA45 PHFO 222048

TCDCP5



HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  32

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192015

1100 AM HST THU OCT 22 2015



OLAF CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED BUT EASILY DISCERNIBLE 10-15 NM

WIDE DIAMETER EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A RECENT 1657 UTC

SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE.

INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.3 FROM THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE

FROM CIMSS...5.0 FROM PHFO AND 4.5 FROM SAB. HAVE LOWERED THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT...WHICH IS STILL ON THE HIGH

SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. OLAF CONTINUES TO BE A

WELL-BEHAVED HURRICANE AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED.

OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION OVER

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE. AFTER 36 HOURS...OLAF WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE

MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF

THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL START TO IMPART MORE OF AN EASTERLY

COMPONENT TO THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...A STRONGER

DIGGING TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS EXPECTED TO CAUSE

OLAF TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS MAINLY AN

UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD

MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL

GUIDANCE.



GRADUAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS THE FORECAST TRACK OF OLAF

TAKES THE HURRICANE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES...AND INTO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE

STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY FAST WITH WEAKENING

OLAF...AND IN FACT SHIPS SHOWS OLAF TO BE DISSIPATED BY 120 HOURS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE AND THEY ALL STILL SHOW A WELL-

DEFINED LOW CENTER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST

CONTINUES TO SIDE WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND A SLOWER

WEAKENING TREND...WITH THE POSSIBLITY FOR SOME BAROCLINIC

ENHANCEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  22/2100Z 13.8N 146.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

 12H  23/0600Z 14.8N 146.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  23/1800Z 16.3N 146.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  24/0600Z 17.8N 146.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  24/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  25/1800Z 21.0N 144.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  26/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  27/1800Z 26.0N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD