WTPA44 PHFO 151430

TCDCP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP182015

500 AM HST THU OCT 15 2015



DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER

IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN EXPOSED FOR

MORE THAN A DAY DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT ACCORDING TO SHIPS AND THE RECENT CIMSS

ANALYSIS...AND THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT PRODUCING THE SHEAR HAVE

CAUSED DEEP CONVECTION TO PERIODICALLY PULSE THEN COLLAPSE. DVORAK

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 1.5 FROM HFO...SAB...JTWC...

AND CIMSS ADT...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT.



NORA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES...AT 6

KT INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A DEEP MID

TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HAWAII. NORA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD

THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE INCREASINGLY WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM

BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH PARKED OVER THE REGION MAINTAINS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF

AROUND 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NORA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A

REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR

DISSIPATION LATE FRIDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LATER THAN SHIPS...GFS

AND ECMWF. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PRIOR

PACKAGE AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED

DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.









FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  15/1500Z 16.6N 152.4W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  16/0000Z 17.0N 152.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  16/1200Z 17.2N 153.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  17/0000Z 17.1N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER WROE